10 Hindcasting of the River Belaya spill

This is the last example of the series.

It is concerned with the oil spill that occured in the Belaya River on December 26, 1995.

The predictions were based on the set of reported data available. They include the spill time and period, spill discharge, river flow discharge, river geometry and bottom topography. The ambient temperature was low enough for water to be ice-covered.

The observed data available are for for leading age of the slick and the location of slick contamination area.

Simulation of River Belaya spill

The upper picture on the above shows the observed and predicted slick location 3 days later after the spill.

The bottom picture shows the simulated peak oill concentration in the suspension.

Considering that the data did not clearly indicate at what hour of the day they were collected, the comparison seems to be good enough for many practical needs.